Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

$2.7M 24h vol·closes 34 days·generated 0s ago

Calibrated p

0.9%

Market 0.9%

Edge vs market

+0.1pp

no edgeconf 37%

Confidence

37%

Kelly fraction

0.1%

Raw blend

1.0%

Signals

Position size · Kellycap ±25%

-25-20-15-10-50+5+10+15+20+25

+0.1%of bankroll

The signals

Every input that fed the blend, sorted by confidence weight.

llm_ensemble

8745ms

1.0%w 95%

4-model ensemble (or:deepseek-v4-flash,or:deepseek-chat-v3.1,or:qwen3-235b-a22b,or:claude-sonnet-4); trimmed-mean 1.0%, σ=0.001.

market_prior

0ms

0.9%w 37%

Market quotes YES at 0.9% on $2738k 24h volume, 34.5 days to close.

quant_sports

0ms

0.9%w 0%

Sports quant module pending Elo backfill — abstaining.

The debate

Frontier models forecast independently, then critique each other.

or:deepseek-chat-v3.1

1. BASE RATE: The reference class is FIFA World Cup winners since 1998 (32-team era). With 8 winners from 7 tournaments, each champion has roughly a 3% historical win frequency per tournament, but for any single non-top-favorite nation, the base rate is well below 1%. 2. EVIDENCE: Croatia is a strong team (2018 finalist, 2022 semifinalist) but faces high competition (France, Argentina, Brazil, etc.). The market price of 0.9% already reflects their contender status. No new context suggests a major shift in their odds. 3. ADJUSTMENT: Starting from 0.9%. No strong evidence to deviate significantly; Croatia’s chances are fairly priced given historical underdog wins are rare. Slight upward adjustment for consistent high performance, but not enough to double the market price. PROBABILITY: 0.012

or:deepseek-v4-flash

The market price of 0.9% already reflects Croatia's low base rate (never won, only two deep runs in history) and the lack of new information. No adjustment is warranted. PROBABILITY: 0.01

or:qwen3-235b-a22b

PROBABILITY: 0.01

or:claude-sonnet-4

1. BASE RATE: For World Cup winners, there are 32 teams in the tournament. However, historically only about 8-10 nations have ever won (Brazil, Germany, Argentina, France, Italy, England, Spain, Uruguay). Croatia has never won a World Cup, though they reached the final in 2018 (lost to France) and semifinal in 2022. A reasonable base rate for a strong non-traditional winner would be around 1-3%. 2. EVIDENCE: No specific recent context provided. Croatia has shown they can compete at the highest level (2018 final, 2022 semifinal), suggesting they're in the tier of teams that could potentially win. However, they have an aging core from their golden generation (Modrić will be 40+ in 2026). The 2026 World Cup expands to 48 teams, which slightly increases variance but doesn't fundamentally change the dynamics for top teams. 3. ADJUSTMENT: The market price of 0.9% seems reasonable given Croatia's track record of deep runs but lack of a championship. Without strong contradictory evidence and given their recent performance ceiling, I see no compelling reason to deviate significantly from the market assessment. PROBABILITY: 0.01